The Battle for Gracie Mansion
The 2025 Democratic primary has become a profound battle for the soul of New York City. An incumbent's exit has paved the way for a stark ideological clash, primarily between establishment veteran Andrew Cuomo and progressive insurgent Zohran Mamdani. This interactive report unpacks the race, the data, and the dynamics that will decide the next Democratic nominee.
Meet the Frontrunners
This primary has narrowed to a tale of two candidates with vastly different visions for New York. One offers a return to experienced, moderate governance focused on stability. The other champions a grassroots, progressive movement centered on affordability. Explore their platforms, support, and vulnerabilities to understand the core choice facing voters.
Andrew Cuomo
Moderate, Establishment Democrat
Zohran Mamdani
Democratic Socialist
Data Deep Dive
Numbers tell a crucial story in this election. From polling that shifts dramatically under Ranked-Choice Voting to the vast differences in campaign funding and voter demographics, these interactive charts reveal the empirical forces shaping the primary. This is the data behind the headlines.
The Polls: A Two-Part Story
Initial preference is not the end game. See how the race changes from voters' first choice to the final round prediction under Ranked-Choice Voting (RCV).
1st Choice Preference
Final RCV Round Simulation
Who Supports Whom? The Demographic Divide
The two frontrunners have built mirror-image coalitions. Explore the demographic data that defines their bases of support.
Cuomo's Coalition
Mamdani's Coalition
Following the Money
Campaign finance data reveals two starkly different fundraising models: a traditional high-dollar machine versus a modern small-dollar grassroots movement.
Cuomo's Average Donation
$714
from 5,463 contributors
Mamdani's Average Donation
$82
from 20,398 contributors
The X-Factors
This primary isn't just about the candidates; it's being shaped by a unique political environment. The incumbent's shocking exit and the strategic complexities of Ranked-Choice Voting are game-changers that have defined the race. Understanding these factors is key to understanding the potential outcome.
The Adams Effect
Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams's decision to exit the Democratic primary and run as an independent created a massive power vacuum. His move, prompted by a federal indictment and collapsing approval ratings (19% favorability), transformed the race from a referendum on him into an open battle for the party's future. Now, Democrats must choose a nominee they believe can win a competitive three-way general election.
The Ranked-Choice Voting Game
RCV isn't just a voting method; it's a strategic battlefield. To counter Cuomo, progressives formed alliances to consolidate their vote. This ensures that as weaker candidates are eliminated, their votes transfer to stronger ideological allies. It's a calculated effort to prevent a split vote from handing Cuomo an easy win.
The Progressive Consolidation Strategy
The Final Prediction
After analyzing the polls, the demographics, and the race's unique dynamics, a likely winner emerges. Zohran Mamdani has run a brilliant insurgent campaign, but his path to victory relies on a historically unprecedented youth turnout. Andrew Cuomo's coalition of older, moderate, and Black voters is a more traditionally reliable and high-turnout bloc in NYC primaries.
Predicted Winner
Andrew Cuomo
with a projected 54% to 46%
in the final RCV round over Zohran Mamdani.
The winner will face a daunting general election against incumbent Eric Adams (Independent) and Curtis Sliwa (Republican), requiring them to quickly unify a deeply fractured Democratic party.